The Hype Cycle is a branded graphical representation tool [1] developed and used by IT research and advisory firm Gartner for representing the maturity, adoption and social application of specific technologies and how they are potentially relevant to solving real business problems and exploiting new opportunities. It gives a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time. Industry use Hype Cycles to get educated about the promise of an emerging technology within the context of their doing and individual appetite for risk.
Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s life cycle.
Technology Trigger
Early proof-of-concept stories and media interest trigger significant publicity. In this stage, a technology is conceptualized. Often no usable products exist and commercial viability is unproven.
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Early publicity produces a number of success stories—often accompanied by scores of failures. The technology is implemented, especially by early adopters. There is a lot of publicity about both successful and unsuccessful implementations.
Trough of Disillusionment
Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters. Flaws and failures lead to some disappointment in the technology.
Slope of Enlightenment
More instances of how the technology can benefit the enterprise start to crystallize and become more widely understood. Second- and third-generation products appear from technology providers. More enterprises fund pilots. Some producers create further generations of products.
Plateau of Productivity
Mainstream adoption starts to take off. Criteria for assessing provider viability are more clearly defined. The technology’s broad market applicability and relevance are clearly paying off. The technology becomes widely implemented; its place in the market and its applications are well-understood. Standards arise for evaluating technology providers.
2013 edition of Gartner's Hype Cycle
The 2013 edition of Gartner's long-running Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies focuses on "the evolving relationship between humans and machines … due to the increased hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things."
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2013 Source: Gartner
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2012 Source: Gartner
Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2009 Source: Gartner
[1] http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycles.jsp
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